Tuesday, August 03, 2010

Djou Leads in Early Poll Data

(hat tip: FrumForum.com ): Early polls show Rep.
Charles Djou leading in his reelection bid:

Just two-and-a-half months after winning his special election in HI-01, a new poll from Rep. Charles Djou’s (R) camp shows he starts the general election in a rather strong position. In the survey, Djou led state Senate Pres. Colleen Hanabusa (D) 50-42%.

The poll, which surveyed 400 LVs and was conducted by the Tarrance Group from 7/26-27, had a margin of error of +/- 4.9%.

In the May contest, Djou defeated Hanabusa 39-31%. But Dems believe that Djou’s victory in the all-party special — which also featured ex-Rep. Ed Case (D) — was an anomaly, and that in a one-on-one matchup with Djou, Hanabusa will prevail in the strongly Dem CD. Case took a disappointing third in that contest, and later dropped plans for a general election primary run. That further emboldened Dems, as the specter of a costly primary would’ve dampened the party’s fall chances against Djou.

In fact, Dems are so high on the seat that, in a recent memo, the DCCC wrote that Dems would pick up at least four GOP-held seats, and Djou’s Dem-leaning CD was at the top of that list. But these survey results would cast a bit of a cloud over those predictions.

According to the poll, Djou still enjoys a bit of a honeymoon from his 5/18 victory. Almost half (45%) of respondents believe Djou deserves re-election, while just 31% say they want a new person. And Djou rates a 58% approval rating, while just 18% disapprove of his job performance. (A previous version of this story incorrectly identified the disapproval number).

Click here to read more.

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