Saturday, January 17, 2009

Who's Got Michael Steele Back?

CNN Political Ticker - A Steele political advisor tells CNN that the former lieutenant governor has "31 hard commitments" from RNC members. It is difficult to judge true support for any one of these candidates because it is a secret ballot, but political observers view Steele as a serious contender for the top spot.

Former Lt. Gov. Michael Steele's whip operation includes:

* Sharon Giese, National Committeewoman, Arizona Republican Party
* Shawn Steel, National Committeeman, California Republican Party
* John Frey, National Committeeman, Connecticut Republican State Central Committee

* Bob Kabel, Chairman, District of Columbia Republican Committee
* Betsy Werronen, National Committeewoman, District of Columbia Republican Committee

* Jim Greer, Chairman, Republican Party of Florida
* Paul Senft, National Committeeman, Republican Party of Florida
* Norm Semanko, Chairman, Idaho Republican State Central Committee

* Patrick Brady, National Committeeman, Illinois Republican Party
* Joyce Terhes, National Committeewoman, Republican State Central Committee of Maryland

* Holly Hughes, National Committeewoman, Michigan Republican State Committee
* Reince Preibus, Chairman, Wisconsin Republican Party

National Reveiw-UPDATE on Chairman Race

The state of the race is perpetually in flux, but here's the sense of things from the people I talk to:

Current RNC Chairman Mike Duncan is either going to do well on the first ballot, and wrap it up quickly, or the message of the first ballot will be that a new leader is necessary. Nobody's underestimating him despite the tough cycle for the GOP last year; he knows all of the voting RNC members except those just elected, and knows what appeals to them. He's proven he can raise massive amounts of money, even in a difficult environment.

Everybody likes Saul Anuzis, but a lot of people are underwhelmed by the performance of the Michigan Republican Party under his leadership. Rivals have pointed out the party's money troubles under his tenure as an ominous omen. Still, if the vote appears hopelessly deadlocked among various factions, it is not unthinkable that he could emerge as a consensus candidate.

Chip Saltsman had an uphill climb going into this as the youngest, and the CD controversy didn't help. But the fact that he may not be the strongest RNC Chair candidate this moment doesn't mean he couldn't be a good fit for the job some time in the future. He went into the debate at the National Press Club with the sense that he had botched the response to the CD story, but impressed some observers with his message and delivery skills, including maybe the clearest renunciation of bailouts.

Katon Dawson impresses a lot of people, a lot of people like his record in South Carolina, and he may have the best grasp of the nuts and bolts of the job. But there's still some trepidation among Northeastern and Midwestern RNC members about having a distinctly Southern voice speaking for the party. And fairly or not, if he were picked, the country club story would be endlessly spotlighted.

Just about everybody likes Michael Steele, but not everybody likes him for the job of RNC Chair. The argument that he's a closet liberal or insufficiently conservative isn't really the weakness; the worry is whether he'll be as good at the parts of the job that aren't in front of cameras - the day to day management.

Ken Blackwell has been campaigning hard, has an impressive resume, and is widely respected. But there are nagging worries - his 2006 campaign for governor performed badly even by the standards of a disappointing year for Republicans, barely advertised on television in the autumn of that year, and he left a lot of enemies in the state GOP. (For what it's worth, Blackwell lost by 24 percent in purple Ohio, while Steele was losing by only 10 percent in deep blue Maryland.) Every candidate has their moments when they have stumbled, but Blackwell, unfortunately, had his fairly recently.

No comments: